The Russian economy was slowing even before President Trump’s latest threats. But the Kremlin has enough money to keep fighting in Ukraine.

"The key channel by which secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy could impact the global economy would be through the level of energy prices," says Kieran Tompkins from the consultancy Capital Economics. If the tariffs work, they will cut the flow of Russian oil and gas to global markets.

President Donald Trump set today as the deadline for Russia to stop its war on Ukraine or face major economic reprisals. But as Washington and Moscow circle a potential summit next week, it’s unclear if Trump will indeed spring for more secondary sanctions — or instead strike a deal that would give Russian President Vladimir Putin control of Ukrainian territory.