Central-bank officials, who meet this week, are in a holding pattern as they wait to see what worsens first: inflation or the labor market.

"Even a Fed rate cut isn't a guarantee that mortgage rates would fall, since the Fed doesn't impact mortgage rates as directly as it does credit cards," said Schulz. "However, the Fed does impact rates indirectly, so a rate cut, whenever it eventually arrives, would likely be a hopeful signal for shoppers."

The U.S. economy has been full of surprises since the Federal Reserve started rapidly raising interest rates to quell inflation back in 2022. The latest shocker might just be that the Trump administration’s tariffs haven’t pushed up inflation more.